Does A Recession loom?

CHUQ · Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:26 am Post subject:

Not looking real good--inflation is up.

Two economic reports released before the start of Wall Street trading Oct. 17 more or less confirmed the market's expectations on consumer-level inflation: running ahead of the Federal Reserve's comfort zone, and housing: still lousy. The market appeared to take those releases in stride, with equities trading higher for much of the Oct. 17 session thanks to some favorable corporate earnings news.

But the release later in the day of a somewhat downbeat Federal Reserve Beige Book report on economic conditions in recent weeks brought gloomy sentiment to the surface, with major stock indexes turning mostly lower while Treasury prices climbed and yields fell.

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Tumbleweed · Black Ops Joined: 02 Jul 2007 Posts: 3687 votes: 3

Well, most leading economic indicators are indicting a slowdown along with rising inflation. Even the government will have a hard time spinning that one.
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CHUQ · Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:41 am Post subject:

The business cycles are not having a problem, but mom and pop have been living with a recession for years now.
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CHUQ · Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:41 am Post subject:

One group to predict an economic uptick.

A gauge of future economic activity edged higher in September, suggesting the economy might grow at a modest pace despite a worsening housing slump.

The Conference Board said yesterday that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in September, to 137.9; analysts’ consensus forecast had been for a 0.4 percent rise. The modest growth follows a decline of 0.8 percent in August. The index has been erratic this year, rising one month and falling the next, but has been flat over all.

The index is meant to predict economic activity in the coming three months.

Seven of the 10 components tracked by the Conference Board increased last month, with the strongest being vendor performance, the job market and stock prices. The housing market continued to lag.

In another report yesterday, the number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by the largest amount since early February, a far bigger increase than had been expected.

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CHUQ · Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 3:38 am Post subject:

the free market at work again.

WASHINGTON, Oct. 31 — The Federal Reserve gave investors what they wanted today, lowering short-term rates for the second time in two months.

But it quietly warned Wall Street not to expected to assume that more reductions are ahead.

The move, to reduce short-term rates by a quarter point to 4.5 percent, was aimed at preventing the meltdown in housing from crippling the rest of the economy. But the vote was not unanimous, reflecting disagreement among policymakers about the risks that confront the economy.

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This is an indication of how well the economy is NOT doing.
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CHUQ · Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:29 am Post subject:

The FEd cuts rates again. If you will recall I said before that Gold was a good indication of a looming recession.

Gold prices have hit a 27-year high, rising on the back of surging oil prices and continuing dollar weakness.

Gold touched a spot price of $799.30 (£385) an ounce during trading in East Asia, its highest level since 1980.

The price of gold typically rises in parallel with oil, as investors see it as a haven against the inflation risk caused by higher crude costs.

The weak dollar also makes gold a more attractive buy for holders of other currencies, as it is priced in dollars.

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Tumbleweed · Black Ops Joined: 02 Jul 2007 Posts: 3687 votes: 3

I think by the end of the year all hell will break lose with inflation and a downturn in the economy. The only thing saving them right now is the fed.
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CHUQ · Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 2:35 am Post subject:

It may be sooner. It will be interesting to see what type of move they will make to try and slow the downward trends in the markets.
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CHUQ · Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:28 am Post subject:

Another good indicator that a recession looms.

Strong evidence is emerging that consumer spending, a bulwark against recession over the last year even as energy prices surged and the housing market sputtered, has begun to slow sharply at every level of the American economy, from the working class to the wealthy.

The abrupt pullback raises the possibility that the country may be experiencing a rare decline in personal consumption, not just a slower rate of growth. Such a decline would be the first since 1991, and it would almost certainly push the entire economy into a recession in the middle of an election year.

LINK
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Tumbleweed · Black Ops Joined: 02 Jul 2007 Posts: 3687 votes: 3

Bush is already talking about a plan to help the economy so it seems once again the government will spending taxpayers money on helping the markets give everyone the impression all is well.

rainman · Civilian Joined: 14 Jan 2008 Posts: 1

I think a recession is unavoidable- if it isn't already going on right now...
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Tumbleweed · Black Ops Joined: 02 Jul 2007 Posts: 3687 votes: 3

Hello rainman. Welcome.

I tend to agree. They are trying to boost consumer confidence but it's a losing battle. IMO.

Segep · Maintenance Man Joined: 02 Jul 2007 Posts: 775 votes: 4

Welcome, rainman. Smile

CHUQ · Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 2:33 am Post subject:

Hiya rainman and welcome. The average working Joe and Joan, have been fighting a recession for several years now. Just Wall Street refuses to acknowledge it.
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Tumbleweed · Black Ops Joined: 02 Jul 2007 Posts: 3687 votes: 3

As usual there is a lot of talk about bailouts and stimulus plans, all meant to interfere with the free market system.